According to Crazzyblock @Crazzyblockk, Bitcoin's exchange-held balance on May 11 surpassed the 30‑day moving average, which at first glance appears to be a bearish signal indicating increased market supply.
However, the underlying fund flows tell a different story.
The adjusted 7‑day average net flow over the past week is –3,958 BTC per day, a sharp deterioration from the +224 BTC of the previous week. This translates to more than 4,100 BTC of withdrawal pressure per day within just one week.
In other words, while the exchange balance itself still looks high, BTC is actually being withdrawn from exchanges at an accelerating pace.
Furthermore, the market environment has shifted from a “Mild Inflow” that lasted 26 days to “Neutral.” In addition, the 7‑day moving average has fallen below the total balance, a condition that in the past has been followed by a large‑scale supply reduction.
The current exchange‑held balance is about 2.72 million BTC, still roughly 6 % below the September 2025 peak of ~2.90 million BTC.
He notes that “the important thing is not the absolute level of exchange balance but the direction and speed of its change,” suggesting that supply absorption may be outpacing supply pressure at the moment.
